The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.40% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up by +0.90%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.38%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +0.84%.

Stock indexes are mostly higher today. The broader market is moving higher today as a decline in crude oil prices lowers bond yields and improves market sentiment. Crude prices fell after weekly data from API late Tuesday showed US crude inventories jumped by +7.1 million bbl last week and inventories of gasoline and distillates also expanded. Crude prices added to their losses today after weekly EIA crude inventories fell less than expected and gasoline and distillate supplies increased.

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Chipmakers are also climbing today to support broader market gains, with Intel up more than +4% after a report that the company was in talks with South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix to produce memory chips in the US for the first time.

Today’s US economic news was mixed for stocks as Aug retail sales rose more than expected, but the Sep NAHB housing market index fell more than expected, matching a 3.75-year low.

US MBA mortgage applications fell -4.1% in the week ended September 11, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -0.8% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -8.8%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose +12 bp to a 15-month high of 6.97% from 6.85% in the prior week.

US Aug retail sales rose +1.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m and the biggest increase in 5 months. Aug retail sales ex-autos rose +1.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m.

The US Aug import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

The US Sep NAHB housing market index fell -3 to match a 3.75-year low of 32, weaker than expectations of 34.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates later today for the first time since 2023, as inflation pressures remain above its 2% target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to lift the fed funds target range by +25 bp to 3.75%-4.00% and provide updated economic forecasts and rate projections. The markets will also focus on comments from Fed Chair Warsh at the post-meeting press conference.

Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) are down by more than -2% today after the weekly API report late Tuesday showed US crude inventories rose by +7.1 million bbl last week. Crude prices surged to a 3.75-month high on Tuesday as disruptions to Middle East supplies persisted, further tightening global oil supplies. Last Friday, Saudi Arabia closed a major pipeline following attacks, disrupting a key route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The East-West pipeline, which carries 7 million bpd of crude, was closed after threats from Houthi rebels, and officials gave no indication of when it will reopen. The pipeline moves oil away from the Persian Gulf toward the Red Sea, where it can be loaded on tankers. Saudi Arabia told OPEC last Thursday that its crude production in August fell to 6.238 million bpd, the lowest since 1990.

Markets are discounting a 94% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.36%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 6-week low and closed up +0.71%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.69%.

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are up by +7 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is down -4.1 bp to 4.961%. T-notes are moving higher today, with WTI crude oil down more than -2%, lowering inflation expectations. T-notes added to their gains today after the Sep NAHB housing market index fell more than expected, matching a 3.75-year low. Some position squaring ahead of the results of the FOMC meeting later today is also supporting gains in T-note prices.

Gains in T-notes are limited after US Aug retail sales rose more than expected. Gains in T-notes are also limited due to expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by +25 bp at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting and may deliver a hawkish stance looking forward.

European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.0 bp to 3.518%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -7.7 bp to 5.310%.

Eurozone July industrial production fell -0.1% m/m, a smaller decline than expectations of -0.2% m/m.

UK Aug CPI rose +3.1% y/y, right on expectations, and the largest increase in 5 months. Aug core CPI was unchanged from July at +2.6% y/y, in line with expectations.

Markets are discounting a 53% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.

Chipmakers and AI stocks are moving higher today, led by a +4% jump in Intel (INTC) after a report that the company is in talks with South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix to produce memory chips in the US for the first time. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +3%. In addition, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) are up more than +2%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML), Nvidia (NVDA), KLA Corp (KLAC), Analog Devices (ADI), and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +1%.

Cloud infrastructure stocks are rallying today. Lumentum Holdings (LITE) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Also, Applied Digital (APLD), and Nebius Group NV (NBIS) are up more than +4%. In addition, Arista Networks (ANET) and CoreWeave (CRWV) are up more than +3%, and Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +1%.

JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) is down more than -13% to lead trucking companies lower and losers in the S&P 500 after saying it expects Q2 to Q3 earnings to drop -5% to -10%. Also, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) is down more than -4%, and FedEx Freight Holding (FDXF), ArcBest (ARCB), Saia Inc (SAIA), and XPO Inc (XPO) are down more than -3%. In addition, Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), and United Parcel Service (UPS), are down more than -2%, and Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN) is down more than -1%.

Energy stocks and service providers are falling today, with WTI crude oil down more than -2%. Diamondback Energy (FANG) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and APA Corp (APA) is down more than -6%. Also, ConocoPhillips (COP) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are down more than -5%, and Devon Energy (DVN) is down more than -4%. In addition, ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is down more than -3%, and Chevron (CVX) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Finally, Slb Limited (SLB) is down more than -2% and Phillips 66 (PSX) is down more than -1%.

FTAI Aviation Ltd (FTAI) is up more than +6% after announcing a $500 million stock repurchasing plan.

Brinker International (EAT) is up more than +2% after Seaport Global Securities initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $230.

Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) is down more than -2% after cutting its 2027 EPS estimate to $1.75 to $1.83 from an April outlook of $1.90 to $1.93.

Aeluma Inc (ALMU), and Lennar Corp (LEN).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.