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Saturday, 31 October 2026

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What Do Parabolic Treasury Yields Tell Us?

Precious metals investors are watching market conditions closely as gold and silver hover at pivotal price points. While both metals have already posted impressive gains, multiple converging factors suggest we may be wi…

Rates Fall Sharply Ahead of the September Jobs Report

TOKYO - Tokyo stocks fell on October 2, with the Nikkei 225 closing at 68,309, down 647 points, as investors took profits after the previous day’s sharp rally and turned cautious ahead of U.S. employment data, rising gl…

Rates Spark: Widening Fiscal Woes

SEOUL – A surge in long-term US Treasury yields is driving up borrowing costs in Korea, lifting government bond yields and adding pressure on companies, households and stocks.

Gilts Too Distracted for Good News

Prime Minister Burnham presented UK government plans that should help ease gilt investors' concerns about political risks. For now, US rates and energy costs continue in the driver's seat, offering little relief for gil…

Real Yield Rise Is Not That Mysterious

Nasa is releasing a steady stream of stunning pictures of the Moon and Earth taken by the astronauts on its Artemis II Moon mission.

Rates Outlook: Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil and Rates

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 challenged much of the common Western understanding of Russia. How can the world better understand Russia? What are the steps forward for Western policy? The Eura…

Rates Outlook: Global Long-End Gets Some Relief From the BoE

The BoE today updated its approach to shrinking its balance sheet and the result today is a further drop in gilt yields with the 10 yr yield now down 8.5 bps. They will halt for the next 6 months its asset sales and thi…

US 10-Year Likely Gets Above and Stays Above 5% Ahead

Equities fall for 6th time in 7 sessions bringing key downside levels closer as breadth deteriorates, oil approaches 4-year highs and long-term yields hit the highest in nearly two decades

Has the Bond Market Already Done the Fed’s Job?

The market spent this week chasing a different driver almost every day. Inflation refused to cool enough for the Federal Reserve to relax, Europe moved closer to another rate hike, and oil stopped trading purely on war …

Bond Market Turmoil Is a Warning Shot for Every Investor

1. AI selloff looks like a reset, not a regime break: The selloff is painful but still concentrated in crowded AI and tech winners, rather than showing broad recession stress, disorderly yields or an earnings collapse. …

The Cleaner Fed Trade Is in SOFR, Not Treasuries

The Federal Open Market Committee primarily adjusts the stance of monetary policy through its target range for the federal funds rate. We discuss whether the fed funds rate remains the right operating target for short-t…

Weak Buyback and Strong Auctions: Bullish Signals for Bonds

Last Thursday’s Treasury buyback operation was deemed “weak” in the financial media as it bought back just $5.19 billion, less than the $6 billion investors had anticipated. A buyback succeeds only if current bondholder…

Rates Outlook: The Heat Ratchets Higher

WASHINGTON — Citing a brighter economic outlook, the Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate Wednesday but maintained its forecast for a total of three hikes this year amid still-modest inflation.

Bond Market’s Verdict on Washington Is Turning Harsher

If the Supreme Court rules President Donald Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs are illegal, U.S. companies would not only be in line to receive tariff refunds, but also billions of dolla…