Corn climbed back above $5 while soybeans stalled and wheat firmed, as U.S. markets weighed export demand, crop yields and late-summer weather.
U.S. grain markets turned mixed on Thursday, Aug. 20, as corn futures advanced, soybeans struggled to extend their rally and winter wheat posted modest gains. December corn moved back above the key $5-per-bushel level as traders reacted to disappointing field observations from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and forecasts for warmer-than-normal temperatures. The shift matters for U.S. producers because commodity prices are entering a critical pre-harvest period, when expectations for crop yields, USDA export demand and weather can directly influence marketing, storage and farm-income decisions.
Corn was the strongest performer among the major crops during Thursday's session. September futures rose 5.75 cents to $4.7875 per bushel, while December futures gained 5.5 cents to settle at $5.0350 per bushel. The return above $5 gives producers an important new-crop pricing reference after a volatile summer. Support came partly from less-than-stellar Crop Tour findings and forecasts pointing to above-normal temperatures through the end of August. For growers balancing input costs, storage capacity and cash-flow needs, the latest move could reopen conversations about forward sales and hedging strategies ahead of harvest.
The December corn chart on page 3 reinforces the session's stronger tone. Futures climbed from levels below $5 during the overnight trade and pushed above $5.05 at points before giving back part of those gains later in the session. Export fundamentals were more mixed. Old-crop sales totaled just 9.2 million bushels in the week through Aug. 13, while 32.1 million bushels of new-crop business lifted combined sales to 41.3 million. That total remained toward the lower end of analysts' expectations, suggesting that sustained export demand will be important if corn prices are to build on their latest advance.
Corn shipments offered a stronger signal than weekly sales. Export inspections reached 77.8 million bushels, up 12% from the prior week and 13% above the previous four-week average. Mexico, Japan, Spain, Colombia and Portugal were the five leading destinations. That overseas movement is increasingly relevant as U.S. growers assess whether current commodity prices justify locking in additional production or maintaining upside exposure. With December futures back above $5, the marketing equation has improved, but the combination of uncertain yields and fluctuating export demand means producers still face substantial price risk heading toward harvest.
Soybean Demand Surges but Record Crop Expectations Cap the Rally
Soybeans presented a different market picture. Private exporters reported to USDA a 5.5-million-bushel sale to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2026/27 marketing year, which begins Sept. 1, yet futures failed to gain significant traction. November soybeans slipped 0.75 cent to $12.3650 per bushel, while January futures edged 0.25 cent higher to $12.5150. Traders are effectively weighing strong demand and declining per-acre yield expectations against the possibility of record production, leaving soybean prices caught between bullish export signals and potentially heavy U.S. supplies.
The November soybean chart on page 5 captures that uncertainty, showing substantial intraday volatility before futures retreated toward $12.36. Export data, however, remained constructive. Old-crop soybean sales totaled 3.1 million bushels, while new-crop bookings surged to 63.3 million bushels, bringing the combined weekly total to 66.4 million. That result was near the top of analysts' expected range of 36.7 million to 69.8 million bushels. Export shipments reached another 14.9 million bushels, 15% above the previous four-week average, with Mexico, the Netherlands, Japan, Egypt and Indonesia the leading destinations.
Weather is adding another layer of uncertainty for U.S. crop markets. The outlook cited in the report indicated the central United States was likely to receive only scattered rainfall totaling 0.25 inch or less between Friday and Monday. Looking further ahead, near-normal precipitation was expected across most of the Corn Belt from Aug. 27 through Sept. 2, accompanied by widespread warmer-than-normal temperatures across the central U.S. For corn and soybean growers, late-season heat and limited rainfall could influence final crop yields, keeping weather premiums alive even as the market begins transitioning toward actual harvest results.
Wheat prices also moved higher, supported by both export demand and geopolitical uncertainty. September Chicago SRW futures gained 2.5 cents to $6.8275 per bushel, while September Kansas City HRW wheat edged 0.25 cent higher to $7.6225. The December Chicago SRW chart on page 7 shows a volatile session, including an intraday retreat followed by a partial recovery. Continued disruptions around the Black Sea have constrained export opportunities from the region, while European production challenges have added support. Those factors could improve the competitive position of U.S. wheat in the global supply chain if disruptions persist.
The demand side strengthened considerably for wheat. Weekly export sales totaled 14.5 million bushels, 54% above the previous week and 40% above the prior four-week average. Shipments reached a marketing-year high of 19.3 million bushels, rising 7% week over week and 46% above the four-week average. Japan, Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea were the five largest destinations. Meanwhile, the International Grains Council lowered its world wheat production outlook by roughly 147 million bushels to 30.02 billion bushels and reduced projected global ending stocks by a similar amount to 10.10 billion bushels.
For U.S. agriculture, Thursday's trade highlighted a market increasingly driven by crop yields, export execution, late-season weather and global supply-chain risk. Corn's move back above $5 provides farmers and co-ops with a stronger pricing reference as harvest approaches, but soybean trading demonstrates that robust demand alone may not overcome expectations for large supplies. Wheat remains particularly sensitive to Black Sea disruptions and tightening global production forecasts. The next challenge for producers will be determining whether these signals can support durable commodity-price strength or simply add another round of volatility to an already complex marketing season.