Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, Alex Thorn of Galaxy reported on September 21, 2026, after the cryptocurrency climbed back above $81,000.

The recovery puts BTC at a historically important technical level, although past cycles offer no guarantee that the June low will hold.

Bitcoin Reclaims a Level That Has Capped Previous Rallies

Thorn has been tracking the 50-week moving average as a ceiling during bear markets, and in an August research report, he explained that Bitcoin had repeatedly struggled to regain the line during previous downturns.

Now, he’s saying that the resistance has finally given way.

“BTC CLOSES WEEK ABOVE 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FOR FIRST TIME IN 45 WEEKS,” he wrote. “Regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are ‘in.'”

The historical record is notable, but it comes with a qualification. Thorn’s study found that in four of the five completed bear markets that lost the 50-week average, the first weekly close back above it was followed by no lower low. The exception was the 2021-2022 downturn, when BTC briefly reclaimed the average twice before falling further.

But according to the analyst, the present downturn remains provisional, and a single weekly close above a moving average cannot establish that a new bull market is underway.

However, fellow market watcher Joe Consorti offered a more bullish interpretation, writing that a close above the average had historically carried a 75% chance of marking cycle lows, rising to 100% if you exclude the Covid crash.

“The bear is slain. Welcome (tentatively) to the bull market,” he posted on X.

Where BTC Is At Currently

Bitcoin’s latest price data puts it above $81,000, up about 1% in 24 hours and nearly 5% over seven days. The monthly gain is about 4%, while BTC remains nearly 30% lower over the past year and 35% below its October 2025 all-time high.

The move follows a turbulent week, with the OG crypto falling toward $75,000 after the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, before recovering despite a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve hike to 3.75%-4% and a Bank of Japan increase to 1.25%, which marked a 31-year high.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that the price had climbed even as prediction markets cut the odds of CLARITY moving forward. The rebound also brought renewed attention to the $82,000 area, where BTC’s advance stalled over the weekend.

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